IN THE foyer security guards wore ridiculously matching bronze jackets. Inside the London Arena, waiters circulated with trays of canapes and fruit punch, as if the 500 hacks present were there for a party not a press conference. The withdrawal of Japanese capital played a large role in fuelling the Asian crisis. Mr Tarullo doubted that the Birmingham summit would single out Japan, however.
"They may be reluctant to put heavy, open pressure on (Prime Minister) Hashimoto, since they all get along well as a group and don't like to put the spotlight on any one of th em." The Birmingham summit might also give its blessing to specific aspects of the evolving proposals for strengthening the architecture of the world financial system to cope with a recurring global financial crises. Last month, finance ministers from a new G roup of 22 industrialised and emerging market countries formed three working groups to study ways to increase the transparency of emerging country finances, implement international surveillance of domestic financial systems and to avert public rescues th at collaterally bail out private lenders from bad investments. The G8 finance ministers meeting this weekend may reach a consensus on some proposals for fulfilling the first two items that can be endorsed by the heads of state at Birmingham. Central to this discussion will be the weak Japanese economy.
In recent weeks, world leaders have been putting increasingly strong private and public pressure on Japan to restructure and stimulate domestic growth in its economy. Mr Tarullo expects the Asian crisis, which is now flaring up in Indonesia and still of concern in Korea and Thailand, will "also find its way on to the Birmingham agenda informally". Harmonious language will be evidence of progress in forging a common European, North American and Japanese position for the continuing global environmental negotiations. At last year's summit, the divergence of views on the environment was so heated that discussion over what to say about it in the communique spilled over from Saturday into Sunday morning. Mr Tarullo said the summit's success would be judged by the concreteness of the proposals that came out of it. For instance, fighting international crime already has a tangible agenda that could be advanced further. Blair, like the President, has a real capacity to listen well and to react in unprogrammed ways." Mr Tarullo noted that the Prime Minister and President Clinton share a similar policy vision: embracing liberal economics and new technology along with with a commitment to develop social programmes that ensure that the losers in economic globalisation a re not left behind or forgotten.
On Africa, one bellwether of success will be whether the world leaders can agree on how to strengthen peacekeeping in a way that complements economic development Environment is another test. Both recognise that traditional welfare schemes are no longer adequate or appropriate to the task. A good deal of the Birmingham summit will be spent with leaders comparing notes about what works and does not work in their respective countries in shrinking the underclass But the scope for joint action on this issue is limited. I'd venture to say that Clinton speaks to Blair more these days than to any other world leader. "They enjoy being with each other, individually and as couples. Having fewer topics on the agenda increases the odds of satisfying the leaders' wish for a substantive meeting and the bureaucrats' desire to receive a concrete mandate of actions to undertake for the coming year.At the summit, Mr Blair's agenda will benefit from the special relationship evolving between him and President Clinton, reminiscent of the Thatcher- Reagan relationship of the 1980s."Blair and Clinton hit it off well very quickly," Mr Tarullo recalled. He was the "sherpa", or lead planner, of last year's heads of state summit in the US."Blair wanted to re-orient the summits on more relevant issues," Mr Tarullo said.